This is the time of year
when some commentators kick back and do end-of-the-year wrap up stories, as if
you haven’t been paying attention for the past 12 months. Bah, humbug.
I don’t review the past… I predict the future!
So let’s review my
prognostications as published one year ago and see how good my crystal ball really was.
METRO-NORTH:
I said the new M8 cars would
perform well, which they did. But the
tracks, switches and catenary wires would need repairs, often causing delays…
check. Ridership would rise, leading to
further crowding. Oh, yeah. On this one I’ll give myself a Grade of an A.
GASOLINE PRICES:
As predicted, gasoline
prices went up as OPEC tightened its controls. And they’ll probably rise further next year.
Grade: A
STAMFORD RAIL GARAGE:
A year ago CDOT had finally
pulled the plug on its ill-fated deal with a private developer to replace the
Stamford rail garage with a high rise, moving parking a quarter mile from the
station. That was a prediction I’d made
2 years ago, but when it came true in 2016 I predicted that CDOT would learn
its lesson on any new development, engaging the public early on in the process…
which they did. No progress to report,
yet. But this time I’m confident it will
be an open decision-making process.
Grade: A
STATE TAKE-OVER OF PARKING
Another oldie but goodie, my
annual prediction that CDOT would finally take over control and operation of
all rail station parking, standardizing rates and waiting lists. This one I got wrong. Grade:
F
FLYING
I was 100% accurate in
predicting the retirement of the 747 from US skies… and a slowdown in orders
for the mega-jumbo A-380… all because of fuel inefficiencies. But ironically, there is renewed interest in
supersonic transports, with a US company looking for orders in 2018. Grade:
A
INTERSTATE 95
This was a no-brainer. More traffic, increased congestion and no
activity on Governor Malloy’s plans to widen the highway. We are still waiting
for results of the $2 million consultant’s study of that plan (previously
studied and rejected in 2004). But whatever they suggest this time, it’s moot
because we have no money. This one was too
easy to call, so I’ll only give myself a B+.
LET’S GO CT
I accurately predicted that
Gov Malloy’s 30 year, $100 billion transportation wish-list (not a plan) would
remain stuck, “just like his political career”.
Though it wasn’t until April 2017 that Malloy declared himself a lame
duck, it seemed clear to many he wouldn’t run again, given his unpopularity and
the state’s failing economy. What we
didn’t see was the legislature would ignore warnings about the draining of the
Special Transportation Fund, all but dooming Malloy’s transportation vision,
not to mention snow plowing, road repairs, additional M8 rail cars, etc. Grade:
A-
TRUMP MONEY
Sure enough, this issue was
what I’d feared: “a wild card, just like Trump himself”. All of us who take the roads and rails were
hopeful that “Donald the Builder” would find the $1 trillion he promised to
spend on infrastructure. But given the
recent battle on tax reform, generating about that same amount in a looming
deficit, infrastructure spending dreams seem on life support. Again, that wasn’t the gutsiest of calls, so
I’ll just give myself a B
Final average grade: B+
Next week I’ll share my
predictions for transportation in 2018.
Posted with permission of Hearst CT Media
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